Saturday, October 18, 2008

Analysis of a Project and Conclusions

Idioma: EspaƱol

It suits to control the situation of the project under analysis every time that a stage is completed. The end of a stage should be related with the obtaining of some result that can be evaluated.

After estimating the value of the reached total improvement, it is determined the improvement contributed by the current stage and it compares it with the improvement contributed by the previous stage:
  1. If the current improvement is the same or higher that the previous one, a CTC took place and the project studies from the first stage again.
  2. If the current improvement is negative or null, it worsened the situation of the project and the causes should be discovered.
  3. If the current improvement is smaller than the previous one, with the equations seen the necessary values they are calculated.

A computer program it helps to the evaluator to carry out those calculations. Entering the stage and the total improvements reached in the previous and current stages, it determines:

  1. The Shape Factor (f).
  2. The index b.
  3. The value of the MLO (L).
  4. The stage (S) where the result of 100 % will be reached.

To control the evolution of the project, with the values obtained in the different stages it is make a table form like that of the TABLE 4.



The example shows a curve that worsens in spite of not having negative slopes. The index b of the stage 3 almost is duplicated and the calculated values of the MLO decrease more and more.

This outline responds to abrupt changes in the Current Performing Conditions (CPC), generally due to human factors. The evaluator team should have corrected the problems in the stage 3, and not to allow them to progress.


SUB-PROJECTS

To analyze complex projects in global way can be very difficult or impossible, for what suits to divide these projects in sub-projects, according to the conveniences of each case. Each sub-project is for separate as if it was an independent project, and they are valid all the comments and equations seen previously. The incorporate improvements to a sub-project can affect to other sub-projects, generating situations different to the existent ones originally.


CONCLUSIONS

The postulate of the MLO produces savings of time and of resources, increasing the efficiency of the reached results. It can be used in two different ways:
  1. Estimated way: applying only the logical concepts, without using equations neither calculations.
  2. Exact way: applying the equations and the seen calculations. This way requires that the results were estimable or measurable; for example, those obtained in chemical experimentations.

The single evaluator or the team of evaluators should know the topic that they are analyzing perfectly and the objectives that are sought to reach. When the existent project doesn't satisfy the expectations they should to design new solutions, and to verify them for repeated application of the concepts of the postulate.

In some complex cases or in the scientific investigations, the desired results can be theoretical and to represent tentative solutions to be reached. The evaluator will determine if a project is acceptable although the reached result is smaller to 100 %.

Knowing the value of the MLO (L), the equation (a) it allows to estimate the total improvement (I) that should be reached in the stage under analysis.

The analyzed values are based on the investigations and the author's experiences. The evaluators easily will be able to modify the data of the computer programs and to analyze different improvements, to change intervals and to fix other limits, simulating new situations and studying their consequences. In the practice, the value of the MLO (L) it can approach to the superior integer.

In the projects in that the improvements are measured or they are determined by other means, their values could be considered in direct way or through conversion formulas. Without the concepts of the postulate are affected, the calculations of the programs could have adjustment differences for the great quantity of used decimals (to use rounding routines adapted to each case).

To understand that the estimate of the per centum improvements generates higher errors that the calculation errors, it was not included in this work the theory of errors associated to the postulate of the MLO. The investigators of scientific applications will be able to add the whole arsenal of mathematical resources that they estimate necessary, without forgetting that the purpose of the postulate is not to determine exact values but to point out tendencies and to notice in advance on deviations in the looked for objectives.